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À combien de fois les Cash Flow se paye une entreprise qui double au 5 ans ?
Excellente lecture comme à l'habitude :http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-csu-earnings-conference-183015390.html
Vous ne connaissezpas quelqu’un dans son sous-sol prêt à vendre son logiciel ?
Ce texte aurait été encore plus intéressant avec un estimé détaillé de la valeur de CSU basé sur la méthode d'évaluation de l'auteur. Cette méthode d'évaluation n'est pas mentionné en détail. Sinon la dernière partie du texte ne reflète probablement pas la profondeur de la recherche qui a mené à cette conclusion :
"...je ne suis pas à l’aise avec des business qui croissent fortement de manière quasi-exclusive par acquisitions. Le risque de surpayer et d’exécution sont toujours là et il est plus difficile de se faire une idée précise sur la qualité sous-jacente du business du fait des nombreux changements de périmètres.
Il semble prudent de considérer que l’avenir de Constellation ne sera pas aussi brillant que son passé. L’entreprise est qui plus est devenue à la mode et tout ce que j’ai pu lire ou entendre à son sujet est élogieux. Ceci ne présage guère d’un prix attractif.
A ce prix (C$530), on achète clairement un ticket sur le jockey et sa capacité à conserver le même rythme que les années passées. Je ne suis pas à l’aise avec cette hypothèse."
les résultats sont solides et l'action atteint des sommets :http://www.csisoftware.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PR_Q3_2016.pdf
Well, we're actually at the M&A Conference Tim and I. So we're in side room and we've got all the stats pull together and analyzed. Bernie has been doing that over the course of last week or two.
And one of things that struck is is that the larger transactions tend to be the ones that have lower IRRs. This is an entirely surprising, they tend to be more competitive. But they are also the ones that have the most disappointments in terms of the results versus what we forecast at the time when we do transactions.
And so it is an activity that only the most experienced and sophisticated investors inside of Constellation will be working on. My sense however is that we are working harder in this area than we ever have before.
It was not a good quarter in terms of the number of transactions, the close that we saw, there were roughly 10 very large vertical market software transactions closed in the quarter and we'd only seen and participated in one of those transactions. We also obviously didn't win though, you would have heard about it.
And - but in terms of activity in large transactions that are earlier stage in the sale process, I think we're pretty active and there's always going to be very low probability hit rate type of activities and they are going to consume the time of senior people that could be used elsewhere. So it's an experiment and you know, we probably going to bash way at it for a couple years and see what happens.
Hi, Mark. Of the nine of the 10 deal that didn't pan out was there sort of commonality to them, you know, price or something else here?
So I was actually surprised that how many of them were not in our database, usually when this large transactions and vast majority are like 90% in our database. So some of those I would suggest that particularly this quarter, a number of them that we missed, we missed because we weren't aware of them, weren’t in contact with them, had not expressed interest in those particular businesses.
So that's the not a good outcome, that talks to sort of our ability to get stuff into the database. That is as a rule, something I worried about a lot, but we'll poke a way at it and see if this hold in terms of our coverage at that level.
The area where we're focusing the most as I mentioned previously is making sure that we do cover on a regular basis. The companies we already have in the database and that we get the opportunity to participate when there are transactions of those private businesses for the most part.
On s'entend qu'il n'y a pas de problème majeur! J'essaie de spicer un peu le thread! Ce n'est par contre pas une bonne chose quand une acquisition te passe sous le nez et que tu n'es pas réellement au courant!
Par contre, évidemment, je pense qu'ils vont corriger le problème :
Yes, I think it’s the first time I've seen it where the percentage is been so low, due to the pretty obvious right, identifying all the large vertical market software company's in the world is not an exercise that takes a crack team of Harvard MBAs, I mean, you can do it with a couple of analysts and some Internet research in a couple weeks. So I was surprised.
Dans les bons points, toujours l'allocation de capital :
Q: On the same side, year-to-date free cash flow was up 26%, which is a fantastic result and your capital for an acquisitions and other uses of cash have lagged on a year-to-date basis. Do you think you know, at this point you need to change anything in regards to your capital allocation strategy or perhaps looking at returning some the capital to shareholders?
A: I think that's the perpetual how embarrassed are you directors going to be questioned, so if the cash piles up and gets to be a largish some, at some point will shareholders call for it to be returned to them, so they can take a crack at investing it.
And I think if you look at our marginal routes and on incremental shareholders equity, however, you calculate that, I think you'll find it's pretty handsome even with the drag of sitting on some cash. And so hopefully the shareholders will give us some leeway.
If you do it on a straight mathematical basis and you pile up cash waiting for a crash, I think you can make the case that you can wait three or four years with excess cash lying around because of the incremental returns that you'll eventually get when you deploy that capital, when the opportunities are attractive.
But it's a tough judgment call and I'm sure we'll be criticized if we end up holding cash at some point