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The S&P 500 on Friday closed at its highest level since June 2008. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) , meanwhile, is flirting
with 13,000. After a dismal 2011, small-cap stocks are leading the U.S. market.
If it seems like the worst is over — don’t believe it, according to Grantham.
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass,” he says. “The market is
gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after
breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task
is to survive until that happens.”
Never borrow to invest. Period.
“Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience,” Grantham says.
But excessive debt is even more insidious. “It encourages financial
aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”
Debt has ruined countries, communities, corporations and consumers. “It has
proven so seductive that individuals en masse have shown themselves incapable of
resisting it, as if it were a drug,” he writes.
Obvious, yes, but worth repeating. Diversification isn’t about returns, after
all. It’s about resilience, Grantham says. “The more investments you have and
the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical
periods when your big bets move against you.”
“Wait for the good cards,” he says. When you find something to buy, you don’t
have to act immediately. Wait for it to hit your price range. As Grantham
explains, “this will be your margin of safety.”
Now comes the hard part: handling the pain of investment losses. But often
the suffering is worth it. As Grantham notes, “individual stocks usually
recover, entire markets always do. … Outlast the bad news.”
Patience is one of the key advantages individuals have over traders and money
managers. Yet many people squander that edge, reacting to day-to-day events and
chasing the latest hot stock or sector. “The individual is far better positioned
to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are
Such a luxury is “almost impossible” for professionals, Grantham says. Wall
Street, he adds, worries about jobs, careers, bonuses and the like, needing to
look busy (read: costly, frequent trading) to earn their keep.
Nobody likes a Debbie Downer, but on Wall Street it’s bad for business,
Grantham notes; many a professional has been fired for being too bearish. (See
job security, above.)
Optimism can win friends and influence people, but it’s a lousy investment
strategy. You have to be willing to hear bearish, bad news about the risks
you’ve taken with your money — and to make informed decisions about it, Grantham
says. That’s doubly true at times when buyers and brokers are exuberant.
Professional investors often spot bargains, but (and this is key) they can’t
and don’t always act on it.
That’s because the price of being wrong, even for a few months, is just too
high, according to Grantham. A manager who lags his or her peers for a couple of
quarters will start to get probing questions from disgruntled clients. If those
clients pull their money, the manager’s bosses will get upset. If they get
upset, they may decide that someone else is better for the job.
Individuals don’t have that worry. So if you find an investment that looks
cheap, even if it’s likely to be out of favor for a while, trust your research.
Says Grantham: “If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced
market, grit your teeth and go for it.”
Market bubbles and the madness of crowds are exciting — until they’re not.
Hard as it might be, don’t jump in because everyone else is, Grantham advises.
“Ignore especially the short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and
political news is irrelevant.”
What is relevant? Numbers. “Do your own simple measurements of value or find
a reliable source,” Grantham says.
Stocks are bought and sold based on expectations for the future value of a
company’s dividends and earnings. So if a stock is trading at a discount to its
long-term earnings multiple, investors can assume that over time the gap will
narrow and the price will rise. Conversely, if the shares are priced above
average, it’s likely the price will decline — and return to the mean — over
Estimates and forecasts such as the ones GMO makes for the next seven years
aren’t complicated, Grantham says. “These estimates are not about nuances or
Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being
William Shakespeare probably would have been a great investor, with his deep
knowledge of human nature and foibles. Take a page from the Bard, Grantham
suggests, and save yourself a lot of money and mistakes in investing.
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your
strengths and weaknesses,” he says. “You must know your pain and patience
thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist
temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”
In that case, Grantham notes, hire a skilled manager or buy an inexpensive
global stock-index fund and don’t look at it until you retire.
“On the other hand, if you have patience, a decent pain threshold, an ability
to withstand herd mentality, perhaps one credit of college-level math and a
reputation for common sense, then go for it.
“In my opinion, you hold enough cards and will beat most professionals (which
is sadly, but realistically, a relatively modest hurdle) and may even do very
Tiré d'un article paru sur MarketWatch. M. Grantham est le stratégiste en chef du gestionnaire bostonnais GMO LLC. Je ne suis pas d'accord avec sa vision actuelle des choses, mais dans l'ensemble je trouve que ses leçons valent la peine d'être retenue.