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Concordia Healthcare (CXR)
Considere comme 'mini-Valeant', avec un titre qui a soufert etant 'coupable par association'. En surface, c'est facile de les mettre dans le meme panier. Apres leur grosse acqusition, ils ont emis une guidance le 25 Oct (re-iteree Nov 12 lors du Q3) dans laquelle ils essaient tres fort de se distancer du business mode problematique de Valeant.
Quatre messages principaux: 1) On n'est pas expose aux attaques politiques d'Hilary Clinton; 2) On a beaucoup de dette mais on va la baisser; 3) On croit par volume et ne jack pas nos prix comme Valeant; 4) ma preferee.... On utilise pas de 'Speciaty Pharma' louches comme Phlidor (et j'espere plus implicitement... on a pas de problemes de comptabilite!).
1) "In 2016, the Company anticipates that approximately 60 percent of revenues will be generated outside the United States, with U.S. government payors expected to account for less than 10 percent of overall revenue.
2) Concordia is targeting 2016 year-end Net Debt/EBITDA of 5.5x or below (...) After 2016, the Company plans to use its anticipated strong free cash flow to pay down debt and further invest in the growth of its business, targeting leverage between 4x and 5x.
3) Management expects high single-digit revenue growth of the combined business over the next three years (2015-2018), driven primarily by expected organic volume growth through continued promotion of its legacy products and up to 60 new product launches. During this period, the Company's non-U.S. revenues are expected to grow at mid-teen rates, with anticipated double-digit organic volume growth, while Concordia's U.S. base legacy business is expected to remain stable, growing at low single digits, in roughly equal parts price and volume.
4) All of the Company's legacy products are sold into and distributed through traditional distributors and pharmacies."
Vous y croyez? Resultats Q4 2015 ce soir.... Alternative a moindre risque a Valeant - ou - copycat a faire autant attention? Vous en pensez quoi?
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Results were amazing: Revenues were up 276%, ebitda 349%, adj EPS were up only 82%! According to their latest F16 guidance published on their website, Adj EPS should be between $6.29-$6.69 US.
With a $6.50 avg @ 1.35 exch =$8.77CA. With a multiple of 10, we can expect a target price of $88 at the end of the year, a potntial upside of +150%... Just need to apply a risk factor to adjust the expectation... but the upside should be good for F16!
Value
The purchase consideration due to the former owners of AMCo was part of the consideration paid for the
acquisition of AMCo. The Company is obligated to pay the Vendors of AMCo a maximum cash earn-out of £144
million based on AMCo’s future gross profit over a period of 12 months from October 1, 2015 to September 30,
2016
(...)
Concordia also announced today that it has entered into an amendment to the agreement for the sale and purchase of AMCo between the Company, Cinven1, (...) option, which can be exercised by Concordia in whole but not in part prior to September 30, 2016, to defer the payment of one half of the earn-out payment owing to the sellers to February 1, 2017 (...) at a rate of eight per cent per annum
(...)
Prior to December 15, 2018, the Company may redeem up to 35% of the
October 2015 Notes with the net proceeds of certain equity offerings at a premium plus accrued and unpaid interest
to the date of redemption.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/blackstone-said-to-weigh-buyout-of-canada-s-concordia-healthcare
Faite un "clique droit" et "ouvrir l'image dans un autre onglet" pour que ça soit lisible