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Knight Therapeutics ( TSX : GUD )

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  • Pour continuer sur la lancé de l'analyse de P-O (dont les interventions sur le forum nous manquent :(), il y avait un excellent article dans le Globe sur la nouvelle CEO de Knight, Samira Sakhia :

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-for-knight-therapeutics-founder-and-ceo-jonathan-goodman-handing-the/#:~:text=Samira Sakhia is the incoming,current CEO of Knight Therapeutics.&text=It's not often a business,who's virtually their polar opposite.

    L'article cerne bien le défi d'être une dirigeante femme immigrante et musulmane. Elle doit faire face à certains préjugés, il arrive parfois que les gens de Westmount la prenne pour la promeneuse de service lorsqu'elle balade ses chiens (sauvés de l'abandon de surcroit). Goodman indique qu'il va passer plus de temps dans la philanthropie mais demeure à la direction stratégique afin de se concentrer sur la vue d'ensemble de la compagnie. On y apprends que Samira siège sur le conseil de Dollarama.
    Comme il est possible que le site du Globe bloque la lecture de l'article, j'ai ajouté à la fin certain extraits en lien avec le futur de Knight. Rien de nouveau mais Samira est consciente qu'ils vont devoir muscler un peu plus les annonces (beef up its disclosure).

    Voici un bref résumé:

    - Les revenus sont impactés par moins de prescriptions produites par les médecins à cause du Covid;
    - Le changement législatif au Canada change beaucoup les opportunités pour notre marché;
    - Biotoscana n'était pas un modèle d'efficience et d'intégration, fonctionnant avec 4 systèmes distincts;
    - Les représentants des ventes commencent à peine à revenir sur le terrain.

    Juste un petit commentaire en terminant, l'article n'en fait pas mention mais Samira doit se féliciter d'avoir reçu l'appel de Goodman il y a 5 ans lorsqu'elle était encore avec Endo (Paladin). L'avoir sorti d'Endo à ce moment est probablement ce qui pouvait lui arriver de mieux quand on connaît la suite. Endo est sur la bord de la faillite à cause des poursuites liées aux opioïdes. Ils sont endettés à l'os et il serait surprenant qu'ils s'en sortent. Je souhaite du succès à Samira et de s'épanouir dans son nouveau rôle.

    Une partie de l'article (prière de vous abonner au Globe and Mail pour la lire au complet):

     Knight faces several significant challenges in the near term as it tries to deliver for its shareholders. Chief among them: reorganizing and ramping up Biotoscana, which operates in a fast-growing region that has nevertheless been badly hurt by COVID-19. Six of the 10 countries with the highest deaths per population since the start of the pandemic are Latin American countries where Biotoscana sells drugs, including Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, according to a daily analysis published by National Bank of Canada.

     

    COVID-19 has affected the health and safety of Knight's staff in Latin America, impacting their ability to do their jobs. And it has hit sales, which remain lumpy. Doctors are seeing fewer patients as they shy away from the health care system, which also means they're writing fewer prescriptions for medications. And physicians have scaled back meetings with drug suppliers, snarling the company's new product launches.

     

    Still, Ms. Sakhia is showing she has a good grip on the obstacles and opportunities as Knight scales up its business. The company this past Friday reported an 87-per-cent increase in net income for the second quarter compared with the same period last year, generating a profit of $29-million, or 23 cents a share, on record revenue of $65.8-million.

     

    Knight saw an increase in demand for its product to treat invasive fungal infections associated with COVD-19, as well as sales growth in several other recently launched products. The company has a market capitalization of about $700-million.

     

    Ms. Sakhia and Mr. Goodman are betting the long-term prospects of Latin America will more than offset the challenging dynamics Knight sees in its home market. After several delays, new Canadian regulations on drug pricing are set to take effect in January, seeking to lower the price of drugs by allowing the federal regulator to adjust which countries it uses to set benchmark prices and to take into account a drug's cost-effectiveness for patients.

     

    Pharmaceutical companies and advocates for sufferers of rare diseases say the changes will further discourage research and development spending in Canada and lead to fewer new drug launches. Supporters of the reforms counter that the industry just wants to protect its fat profit margins.

     

    For Knight, which makes money by buying and licensing largely proven products, the uncertainty in Canada on pricing has made it difficult to plot its strategy. So, it is switching much of its focus to Latin America, a region Mr. Goodman says is much like Canada was 10 years ago. "We know how to make money in that kind of market."

     

    Ms. Sakhia helmed the Biotoscana acquisition and she's the one tasked with integrating its 700-some people in 10 countries, a challenge complicated by the pandemic and by the fact that Biotoscana wasn't optimally organized in its own right. The newly acquired company was in fact four separate companies, each with its own IT systems, accounting and even inventory. For something as simple as a marketing plan for a product, there were seven plans. "It was crazy," Ms. Sakhia says.

     

    Ms. Sakhia is methodical in her approach to what needs to be done. Unlike Mr. Goodman, who let his subordinates work with little supervision, she is heavily involved in each step of the company's operations and development and demands constant monitoring and accountability from her staff.

     

    "As Ms. Sakhia has been effectively running Knight's operations for some time, we do not expect any disruptions and view her assumption of the CEO role positively," National Bank of Canada analyst Endri Leno said, echoing the sentiment of other analysts.

     

    The incoming CEO is optimistic Knight can grow its profits despite obstacles. Drugs such as Exelon, a dementia fighter whose rights Knight recently purchased for Canada and Latin America, have staying power, she says. And as Knight works through the Biotoscana acquisition, she says the company will beef up its disclosure - something that should get investors more comfortable about its prospects.

     

    "I know that there's a lot of fear of the next levels of COVID, but we are going to come out of it," Ms. Sakhia says. "We're already talking about return to office. We're talking about return for the [sales] reps. The world is going to wake up again. And we want to be ready."



  • Les résultats d'aujourd'hui sont vraiment intéressants considérant le prix du titre. La compagnie à des actifs financiers pour environ 2,90$ par action et l'entreprise devrait faire selon mes prévisions au moins 300M$ de revenus en 2022 et dégager autour de 0,45$ de BPA.

    La croissance sans considérer les acquisitions est très intéressante depuis le début de l'année et avec tous les nouveaux produits qu'ils sont en phase de lancement et qu'ils vont lancer l'an prochain la croissance devrait se poursuivre à moyen terme.

    La marge brute est quelque peu surélevé dû à l'acquisition des droits sur Exelon et le fait qu'ils reçoivent actuellement seulement les profits et non les ventes plus les dépenses. 

    L'entreprise a encore racheté plus de 1M d'actions après la fin du trimestre. On est autour de 4M d'actions racheté en 4 mois.

    Personnellement c'est un des rares titres que je suis qui a le potentiel de doubler sur 4 ans.
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