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Loyalist Group (loy.v)
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Sur le 10% de croissance, quel % est de la croissance interne?
Tou’ve probably heard that investing in an education is one of the
best decisions a person can make. But what if it’s not your own? After
all, there are publicly traded companies that provide a good education
to students and good returns for investors. Let’s do a bit of studying.
Loyalist Group is a Vancouver-based company that is aggressively
rolling up the larger English-as-a-second-language (ESL) schools in
Canada. ESL is big business. Total tuition revenues in Canada are about
$350 million annually, according to Industry Canada (2009). Loyalist has
about 3.5 per cent of the market, which is dominated by mom-and-pop
entrepreneurs. Because those mom-and-pop operators have few options when
it comes to exiting their businesses, Loyalist has been able to grow
its own from one school to five in less than two years, and despite its
small market share, it is now the biggest player in the space.
The schools the company is targeting are the bigger, brand-name ones
in Vancouver and Toronto that attract foreign students and workers who
want to learn English and then return home, where they will earn higher
salaries. They’re typically employees of big corporations, children of
wealthy families or good students who earn scholarships from
governments. In other words, price is not a big issue for them.
It hasn’t been for the people running the schools, either. Most of
them are operated as a “first love” rather than a business, which means
there’s plenty of low-hanging fruit for Loyalist (LOY) to harvest. When
it acquires a school, in fact, it typically quadruples the profits in
short order. How? First, by cutting costs through synergies. In 2011,
LOY acquired schools with aggregate annual revenues of $10.5 million.
Those schools are now collectively producing annualized sales of about
$13 million. The total purchase price for these acquisitions was about
$1.5 million, which is less than the synergies and attests to the
economics of the rollup.
There are other synergies, as well. One of the schools LOY bought is
Vancouver’s Pacific Gateway International College (PGIC), one of the
more established and prestigious language schools in the province. As a
result, LOY rebranded its Toronto school, the former McKinsey
International College, as PGIC Toronto, a decision that allowed it to
increase tuition by 28 per cent. Loyalist will also save a lot by
unifying its marketing budgets, since marketing (especially commissions
paid to recruiters) is a key expense associated with attracting
students. By opening recruiting offices in South Korea, Brazil and Japan
– something a single-school operator could never do – Loyalist is
turning high variable costs into lower fixed costs.
With pending acquisitions (for which letters of intent are signed),
Loyalist should exit 2012 with sales of about $20 million. That will
grow as it acquires more schools and develops new lines of business,
like housing. Currently, LOY charges students $100 to help them find
lodging, in the process earning $20/student after costs. The company is
experimenting with offering housing in Toronto, with a single property
lodging 14 students. The property is netting about $100 a month per
student. Given the fact that it has 1,000 students now, and that the
number will grow substantially as the company grows, lodging students
could add substantially to the bottom line. Over time, the company will
likely spin off a REIT to its shareholders made up of both its lodging
properties and the commercial space it intends to buy to house its
schools (rent is one of the biggest expenses).
The company earned a little more than a penny a share in the first
quarter, or about five cents per year. The stock, at less than a
quarter, is cheap. But don’t take my word for it. The company just
completed a financing in which Seymour Schulich, the self-made
billionaire investor, participated. Schulich’s right-hand man has joined
the board, indicating that he has very high hopes for the firm. Very
few people have heard the story yet, but that will soon change. Given
the company’s earning power and growth prospects, investors will
prosper.
Un très bon trimestre de croissance...tel que mentionné par la direction, les deux acquisitions n'ont été comptabilisées que pour la 2e moitié du trimestre, les marges s'améliorent, les prochaines acquisitions devraient contribuer davantage à la rentabilité de l'entreprise..."Our administrative systems are now adequate to add significantly more revenue with minimal increase in operating costs."...et avec un renversement de tendance du prix de l'action, un financement des prochaines acquisitions avec un titre plus élevé...bref ça va bien !!
Le titre a fait 0,018$ de bpa excluant les frais d'acquisitions au Q3. Ces résultats ont subi l'impact d'une grève des employés de consulat (maintenant réglée) et n'incluent presque pas leur grosse acquisition de King's College (qui augmente les revenus de 40%).
On pourrait donc prévoir environ 0,08$ de bpa pour 2014 sans acquisition supplémentaire.
A 10x les profits, on a un titre à 0,80$ pour un rendement de 20%
A 12x les profits, on a un titre à 0,96$ pour un rendement de 45%
Suite aux derniers résultats et l'apport des 2 dernières acquisitions pour l'année à venir je crois bien Phil que ton 0,08$ est fort réaliste sans la multitude de possibilité de croissance à venir.
C'est avec retard que je suis devenu actionnaire à 0,65$ aujourd'hui.
Et je serai pas surpris de le voir doubler en 2014
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/loyalist-group-launches-franchise-program-140100621.html
J'aime bien cette stratégie.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/loyalist-group-announces-bought-deal-131900713.html
Donc à 0,75$ on a un titre de Forte croissance les coffres pleins qui se vend 15 X p/e 2014.
Cependant tous nouveau revenu ( Logement , Franchisage et acquisitions ) fera augmenter notre bpa
Le Risque est fort raisonnable !
La thèse c'est la croissance par acquisitions en faisant des grosses synergies avec les écoles achetées. Seulement que de mettre un chiffre sur la croissance c'est pas possible à mon avis. Ca sera 10%, 20% 50%, ou même 0% (ce que je doute) l'an prochain je le sais pas. Ce que je sais par contre c'est ce qui s'est passé dans les 2 dernières années et les économies impressionnantes qui ont été réalisées sur les cibles. J'espère que ca va continuer mais je peux pas te quantifier le combien et le quand. Et aussi, ce que j'aime beaucoup, c'est que le CEO est un actionnaire important. Le domaine aussi intéresse pas personne, il n'y a pas de concurrents forts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/loyalist-acquire-study-english-canada-133000389.html
Devrait nous fournir 0.005$ bpa cette année et autour 0.009$ bpa l'an prochain.