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Fortress Paper (FTP)
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Réponses
LStPierre, il me semble qu'une action monte parce que un tas de fous ont soudainement décidé de l'acheter et qu'elle descend parce qu'un autre tas de fous (ou le même) a soudainement décidé de vendre. Y a-t-il vraiment d'autres raisons pour lesquelles une action peut monter ou descendre ? :-)
"Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point" (Blaise Pascal)
Invesco est présentement le plus gros actionnaire de FTP devant Chad. Ils détiennent plus de 10% des actions de FTP et il semble qu'ils ont acheté 36% du volume transigé en juillet. Je crois bien que c'eux qui achète présentement.
Entrer présentement dans une entreprise ayant des actifs pouvant générer 175 millions EBITA et ayant une market cap de 200 millions...J'ai un coût moyen de $25 et je suis encore confortable de faire un double d'ici deux ans. Imaginer à $14.
Je dois vous avouez que je ne suis pas un expert dans le domaine du "short ratio", mais j'ai découvert qu'il y aurait présentement 547000 actions de FTP qui serait short. Bloomberg donne 11 jours pour couvrir la position soit une moyenne de 50000 actions par jour, mais au volume récent ca prendrais pas mal plus de temps.
Je sais pas, mais il me semble que certain devrait être nerveux. Je le serais a leur place en tout cas. Comment tu fais pour couvrir ta position sans faire augmenter le prix quand il y a très peu de volume?
Est-ce ca peux avoir un lien avec l'emission de débenture? Certains pourrait avoir acheté la debenture et shorter l'action?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FTP:CN/key-statistics
http://www.asiapapermarkets.com:8080/apm/apm/common/mktbuzz_past.jsp#2012082911
Two additional bank note paper production lines for
India
(Heidenheim,
Germany, Aug. 27, 2012) In the spring of 2012, Bank Note Paper Mill India
commissioned Voith to supply two bank note paper machines to Mysore, India. The
project involves two entire production lines, including all machine clothing.
Each of the two machines has a wire width of 2,800 mm and produces high-quality
bank note paper with a basis weight of 90 g/m�. The annual production capacity
per machine is 6,000 metric tons.
In 2010, Voith had already received an
order to supply an entire bank note paper machine from the Indian manufacturer
SPMCIL in Hoshangabad. Together with the two recently ordered production lines,
these three machines will be able to cover the current need for bank notes in
India. (Source: Voith)
En gros, ce que ca veut dire, c'est que la grosse commande de Landquart est temporaire le temps que les machines indiennes soit opérationnelles et que les problèmes en Suisse sont loin d'être réglés. Du manière ou d'une autre, l'avenir de FTP passent par Thurso et LSQ.
Déboires de Landquart et possible offre d'achat à rabais?
http://www.lematin.ch/economie/Nos-futurs-billets-de-banque-cherchent-leur--papier/story/23428267
D'accord avec vous jf et empcod, je commence aussi à avoir hâte que Landqart soit vendu. Il ont fait une superbe job à Dresden,mais Landqart c'est vraiment un cauchemar qui n'en fini plus.
September 7, 2012<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
Fortress Paper
Provides Corporate Update
VANCOUVER, BRITISH
COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Sept. 7, 2012) - Fortress Paper Ltd. ("Fortress
Paper" or the "Company") (TSX:FTP) wishes to provide a general
corporate update relating to its operations.
Fortress Specialty Cellulose Mill
Construction of the cogeneration facility at the Fortress Specialty Cellulose
Mill is proceeding generally as planned with some minor delays due to
delivery impediments of major equipment. The turbine and generator are on
site and installed with delivery of the final critical path item expected in
late September. The cogeneration facility is expected to be delivering power
in January 2013.
The Fortress Specialty Cellulose Mill has confirmed that the annual
maintenance shut-down will be taken in the last week of September. During
this outage, critical electrical work will also be completed to allow
connection of the new power generating facility to the grid. This is the
first scheduled maintenance shut-down since the mill commenced producing
dissolving pulp and it is anticipated that the next annual maintenance cycle
may also require a higher level of planned maintenance downtime.
During August, the mill operated at an average monthly rate of 83% of planned
production capacity, with steady progress being made on de-bottlenecking
activities. Production of dissolving pulp was recently curtailed for an
equivalent of four days of pulp production as a result of a premature tube
failure in the mill's No. 2 recovery boiler. The boiler and full mill were
shut-down safely in order to complete repairs and are now operating normally.
The curtailment and subsequent ramp-up reduced the mill's overall production
efficiency for the month.
Fortress Global Cellulose Mill
Initial work has commenced at the Fortress Global Cellulose Mill following
the close of the acquisition in June 2012, including building and equipment
repair and the reactivation of services and utilities in a planned sequence.
Water supply and fire protection services are operational and the high
voltage distribution network is in the process of being reactivated. Critical
equipment assessment is ongoing and the Company is finalizing refurbishment
plans for the key process areas. Various cost saving and asset preservation
plans are being developed ahead of the coming winter season. To date, pulp
mill repairs and re-commissioning activities are proceeding materially as
planned.
The Fortress Global Cellulose Mill has also received an official
authorization permit from the Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de
l'Environnement et des Parcs. This permit is required in order to proceed
with the construction of the new dissolving pulp plant.
Following the filing of its application with Hydro-Quebec Distribution, the
Fortress Global Cellulose Mill has received approval for its cogeneration
project at Lebel-sur-Quevillon and is working with Hydro-Quebec towards the
conclusion of the previously described power purchase agreement. Management
expects the agreement to be completed shortly in the normal course.
Dresden Mill
The continued growth of the worldwide market for non-woven wallpaper base has
exceeded management's expectations and the Dresden Mill is maintaining its
position as a leader in this market.
During the general maintenance shutdown of the mill in the first 10 days of
August, the Company completed the main portion of its 2012 capital
expenditures program at the Dresden Mill. To date in 2012, the Company has
spent approximately EUR3.7 million in Capex with the goal of increasing
production speed from 450 metres per minute to approximately 475 - 500 metres
per minute, depending on the product mix, and thereby increasing its
theoretical annual production capacity from approximately 56,000 tonnes per
year to approximately 60,000 tonnes per year. This increase in production
capacity would enable Dresden to maintain its market share of approximately
50% of the world-wide non-woven wallpaper base market.
Landqart Mill
Although the Landqart Mill had another challenging month in July, results in
August show a marked improvement with product shipments commencing for the
large re-instated banknote substrate order. Although waste rates remained
relatively high during this period, they are decreasing and are coming
in-line with expectations.
Fortress Optical Features
Fortress Optical Features has met the technical qualifications and received
approval to supply security thread components for two banknote issuing
authorities. As a result, it will be able to directly or indirectly
participate in such upcoming tenders for banknote papers.
L'analyse est dans le dropbox.
J'adore cet extrait...
The combined impact of these long-term green energy purchase agreements are critical to the restart and longer-term competitiveness of these two previously idled pulp mills. They will provide a combined green energy revenue stream of approximately $42 million per annum, which equates to an offset credit to production cost of $93.00 per tonne of dissolving pulp produced, once the mills are at their rated capacity of 450,000 tonnes per annum. Put another way, this very stable revenue stream provides approximately 1.7x interest coverage on our forecast of Fortress’s maximum annual interest payments of $25 million per annum.Je dois avouer que c'est un travail impressionnant de la part de CIBC. Assez exhaustif, ils ne couvrent toutefois pas les options offertes par la vente d'actifs et par les futurs cash flow, par exemple une acquisition supplémentaire ou des rachats d'actions...mais bon on est pas rendu là!
Regardons maintenant l'exécution et une possible vente de Landquart.
Saint-Peter-Lynch et Saint-Phil-Fisher seraient pas d'accords avec toi sur celle là!
Dp prices under 1000$/ton
Ouch...
Given existing market conditions and in order to maintain good customer relations, a significant portion of our sales orders for the fourth quarter is expected to be below the floor prices set forth in our supply agreements with our three major Chinese purchasers. These supply agreements are currently under review with the counterparties to reassess each party’s obligations going forward.